The Commerce Department will at 8:30 a.m. ET release its first estimate of the US economy’s growth during the second quarter.
Economists forecast that gross domestic product (GDP), the total value of all goods and services produced domestically, rose by 4.2%.
That would be the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2014.
President Donald Trump has already hinted that it’s going to be a strong number, again breaking with tradition of US presidents not commenting on major economic data pre-release.
“Somebody actually predicted today 5.3,” Trump said during a rally Thursday at a steel plant in Illinois.
“If it has a 4 in front of it, we’re happy.” A three-percent handle would be “okay,” he added.
Trump also talked up the May jobs report, which turned out to be strong.
But there are other reasons why, in the second quarter, the economy likely accelerated from the 2% pace of growth recorded in Q1.
First-quarter growth tends to undershoot the rest of the year because of the so-called residual seasonality issue that stems from how the Commerce Department adjusts for calendar and holiday effects.
Also, Q2 was the first full quarter since Trump signed corporate and personal tax cuts into law. Personal consumption is forecast to have risen at a 3% pace from 0.9% in Q1.
The economy likely got a boost from net exports and inventories, too.
“We find evidence that the hefty contributions from these two categories is likely a reflection of stockpiling ahead of the implementation of trade tariffs, and so they are likely to subtract from growth in the following quarters,” Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley’s chief US economist, said in a preview.
More to come, refresh this page at 8:30 a.m. ET for the latest.
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- BANK OF AMERICA: Global markets are echoing the 1998 financial crisis, and there’s evidence for another crash
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