Here are all the areas in Hurricane Irma’s path and when the storm could arrive

Hurricane Irma started hitting the Leeward Islands, the chain of islands separating the Caribbean Sea from the Atlantic Ocean, early Wednesday. By Sunday morning, the storm had caused severe damage in Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Cuba. The storm made landfall in the Florida Keys as a Category 4 on Sunday morning and started heading up the state’s peninsula as a Category 3.

Hurricane Irma, one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes ever recorded, started slamming the southeastern Caribbean islands early Wednesday with devastating winds, heavy rains, and catastrophic storm surges.

As of 3 p.m. ET on Sunday, the Category 3 storm was battering the Florida Keys and southern tip of the state with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. The National Hurricane Center said the hurricane was cruising north toward Naples, Florida at 12 mph.

An 82-mph gust of wind was already reported at the Naples Municipal Airport, and the storm is sitting 20 miles south of the city.

The NHC reports that Irma made landfall at Cudjoe Key, one of the lower Florida Keys, at 9:10 a.m. on Sunday, and made another landfall at Marco Island, on the west coast, at 3:35 p.m. on Sunday.

“The threat of catastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest coast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground level is expected,” the NHC wrote on Sunday. “This is a life-threatening situation.”

What’s next

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The National Weather Service’s latest forecast puts the entire state of Florida in the storm’s crosshairs, with Irma lashing the Florida Keys and southern tip and western coast of the state on Sunday.

The storm is expected to travel up the western side of the peninsula on Sunday night and Monday, then head for Georgia and Alabama on Monday night into Tuesday morning. It could reach Tennessee by Wednesday morning.

Hurricane warnings are in effect around most of the Florida coast, from Fernandina Beach south around the peninsula to Indian Pass. The Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida Bay are also under hurricane warnings.

Storm-surge warnings are in effect from the South Santee River to Jupiter Inlet, from North Miami Beach south around the peninsula to the Ochlockonee River, as well as in the Florida Keys and Tampa Bay. Those areas could face “life-threatening inundation” from the quick rise in water caused by a hurricane’s strong winds.

A hurricane watch is also in place along Florida’s northeast coast, from Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach in South Carolina.

Life-threatening winds

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While Hurricane Harvey brought devastating floods late last month, Irma’s biggest threat is its strong winds and storm surge.

Irma is now a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale, which measures a hurricane’s strength based on its wind speeds. The scale goes up to 5, but if it had been extended to classify Irma’s highest sustained wind speeds of 185 mph, the storm could have been considered Category 6 at one point, though that’s not an official designation.

The winds are churning up tornadoes, and many counties in Florida are under tornado warnings, as well.

Part of what makes this storm so dangerous is its sheer size – hurricane-force winds extend up to 80 miles from Irma’s center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 220 miles, according to the NHC.

Florida’s peninsula is only about 140 miles across at its widest, so Irma could engulf the entire state with its powerful winds.

Dangerous flooding

Irma’s storm surge and wave height could be devastating.

The National Hurricane Center suggests that if Irma hits Florida at high tide, water levels there could rise 10 to 15 feet above ground from Cape Sable to Captiva, 6 to 10 feet from Captiva to Ana Maria Island, 5 to 10 feet in the Florida Keys, 5 to 8 feet in and around Tampa Bay, 3 to 5 feet from North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, 4 to 6 feet on the east coast of Florida from South Santee River to Fernandina Beach, 4 to 6 feet on the west coast of the state from Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River, and 2 to 4 feet from Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet.

The NHC expects between 15 and 20 inches of rain in the Florida Keys, with isolated areas getting up to 25. The western Florida peninsula can expect 10 to 15 inches, with some totals reaching 20 inches of rain. Eastern Florida into Georgia could get 8 to 12 inches, with some areas seeing up to 16 inches of rain.

Western Cuba could see an additional 1 to 3 inches, with some areas getting another 5. The western Bahamas could get another 2 to 4 inches, up to 6 inches of rain.

Once Irma leaves Florida, South Carolina and western North Carolina could get 3 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 12 inches, and eastern Alabama and southern Tennessee could see 2 to 5 inches.

The rains could cause “life-threatening” flash flooding and mudslides, the NHC says, and could fall as fast as 2 to 4 inches per hour.

Threats to the US mainland

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The NHC is forecasting Irma will make landfall in Florida as a catastrophic hurricane on Sunday, and forecasters advise residents to heed the advice of local officials and get ready if they are in the projected path of the storm. As of Saturday morning, nearly 7 million people have been ordered to evacuate.

The Florida Keys and the southern tip of the state are the most likely to see the worst effects of the storm before Irma starts to weaken slowly after making landfall.

“There is a serious threat of significant storm surge flooding along the entire west coast of Florida and 15 feet of impact above ground level in southwest Florida,” Florida Gov. Rick Scott said at a news conference on Sunday.

Forecasters aren’t positive yet how Irma will move up the US mainland, though the models are indicating the storm could hit Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, and parts of Missouri and Arkansas.

“Since Irma is a large hurricane, [forecast] users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track since tropical-storm and hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge extend far from the center,” Daniel Brown, a senior hurricane specialist at the NHC, wrote on Tuesday.

“Everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.”